Cracks form in the global trading system

The latest CIPS Pulse Survey signals rising costs across shipping and logistics, energy and inputs – sounding the alarm for consumer price increases throughout 2026 and the need to accelerate resilience strategies.



The survey, conducted globally in Q4 2025, offers an early indicator of stress within the global trading system. Concern about the short-term security and price stability of supply chains has reached a record high, with anxiety ratings standing at 4.59 out of 7 (up from 4.36 in Q3 2025) among respondents.

Shipping and logistics topped the areas of concern, with 22% of those surveyed reporting cost rises of over 10% by the end of 2025. Nearly a fifth of respondents anticipated cost rises of over 10% for computers and associated equipment, while 15% expected rises in transport equipment, and 14% in electrical machinery and apparatus. 

Cost volatility leads to consumer price rises 

With multiple cost pressures converging, we are increasing the likelihood that cost volatility at the procurement level will translate into renewed inflationary pressure for consumers in 2026. 

With freight and logistics costs fluctuating sharply over short periods, organisations are facing difficult choices: do they absorb costs, delay supply, or pass increases down the value chain? In an environment where volatility is persistent rather than episodic, price risk increasingly becomes price reality. 

The survey also highlighted tariffs and protectionist trade policies as major sources of volatility, with respondents reporting active monitoring and direct impact from shifting trade rules. Of those surveyed in the Q4 2025 Pulse, 42% cited US protectionism as a major source of volatility and 39% identified ongoing US–China trade tensions as a key risk to supply chains. 

As global leaders debate the future of trade governance and the rules-based trading order, procurement teams are already pricing in uncertainty through higher risk premiums, diversified sourcing and longer-term contracts designed to withstand sudden policy shifts. 

Early 2026 price swings in shipping and logistics validate survey warnings 

As 2026 gets underway, those concerns are now being realised, with sharp movements in freight and logistics costs reinforcing the survey’s warning that volatility – not stability – is now the baseline assumption for global procurement planning. 

“Procurement professionals are often the first to see cracks forming in the global trading system,” said CIPS CEO Ben Farrell. “What this survey showed at the end of 2025 and what January 2026 has already confirmed is that volatility is no longer an exception. When logistics costs can swing by 20–30% in weeks, those pressures inevitably ripple through to businesses and consumers alike.” 

The price movements experienced between December 2025 and January 2026 between Asia and Europe, and Asia and the US illustrate the scale of volatility procurement teams are now expected to absorb across major shipping routes. 

The average price of shipping a 40-foot container between Asia and the West Coast of the US jumped by almost 30% between December 2025 and January 2026, according to the Freightos Baltic Index. Similarly shipping between Asia and the US East Coast, Northern Europe and the Mediterranean also saw significant spikes.

Resilience is no longer optional 

Global supply chains have entered the first quarter of 2026 facing heightened instability, as procurement professionals warn that cost volatility is becoming a permanent feature of international trade rather than a temporary disruption. 

In response to sustained volatility, organisations are accelerating resilience strategies, including supplier diversification, extended contracts and selective inventory increases. These measures, while improving security of supply, also raise the underlying cost base of global trade. 

“Volatility itself is inflationary. Even when prices fall back, the uncertainty forces organisations to plan for worst-case scenarios,” said CIPS global economist Dr John Glen. “In 2026, global procurement is being reshaped by the need to operate in an environment where disruption, cost swings and policy uncertainty are the norm rather than the shock.”