Larger, older, more urban

When we look to the future, one factor will affect procurement and supply chains like no other: the global population.

By 2050, two billion more people will exist in the global economy, with expectations of goods and services. That population will be older, will live predominantly in cities, and while the population of Europe will shrink, in sub-Saharan Africa it will likely double.

These shifting demographics will reshape the world and, says futurist Dr Graham Norris, they play to the strengths of procurement and supply chain professionals. 

“Sitting at a key intersection of their organisations’ operations, procurement professionals are well-positioned to become future-confident leaders,” he says. But only if they develop the capacity of “strategic foresight through mental time travel.” 

In 2026, CIPS is leading The Great Conversation, a worldwide dialogue that will consider the consequences of these mega trend shifts.  

Together with our community, we will also be time-travelling to look at the capabilities required in a world defined by fast-changing technologies, geopolitical upheaval, the changing nature of business itself, and rising environmental risk. 

In the first of a special series of articles, we examine population growth and density, and the opportunities these could present for procurement and supply chain professionals. 

Two billion extra people will enter the economy by 2050

By 2050, the world population will have soared to 9.8 billion with the addition of two billion extra people. That growth will concentrate in nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States of America. India is expected to maintain its title of most populous country in the world through to the middle of this century.

We’re also seeing a period of accelerating global ageing, with the fastest growing age group overall being the over-65s. And, according to the World Health Organization, by 2050, 80% of older people will be living in low- and middle-income countries. Between 2015 and 2050, the proportion of the world's population over 60 years will nearly double from 12% to 22% – a total of 2.1bn – and the number of people living to see 80 is expected to triple to 426 million.

At the young end is sub-Saharan Africa, where many countries already have median ages below 16; among the youngest are Niger, Uganda, Chad and Angola. 

“Japan has spent decades navigating the supply chain consequences of a declining population and ageing society”

Japan offers a stark preview of what lies in store for much of the globe outside of high-growth countries in Africa and Asia. With a median age of around 50 years and some 30% of its population already over 65, Japan has spent decades navigating the supply chain consequences of a declining population and ageing society, with a stagnant economy and shrinking domestic manufacturing workforce. Looking ahead, the country is seeing a surge in demand for healthcare products, assistive technologies and age-appropriate consumer goods. Find out more about the pressures that an ageing – but still active – population is putting on global supply chains as we approach 2050. 

Another global population trend is rural depopulation. This is already being witnessed in Europe, with entire towns and villages being denuded in countries from Bulgaria to Italy. 

An almost entirely urbanised population by 2050 

Almost 45% of the global population of 8.2 billion already live in cities – urbanised areas with a population of over 50,000 – according to the United Nations World’s Cities in 2025 report. But by 2050, 48% of the world’s 9.7 billion population will be city dwellers, and 83% will live in cities or towns. 

Graph of world population distribution by degree of urbanisation and city size class, with estimates for 1975, 2000 and 2025 and projections for 2050 
 
The number of cities themselves will grow to accommodate these new urbanites. Four new megacities will emerge by 2050 as the populations of Addis Ababa in Ethiopia, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, Hajipur in India and Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia each surge past ten million. An additional 22 “large” cities of between 5-10 million people are set to appear.

“The shift will entail a fundamental reconfiguration of where demand is generated, how goods need to be delivered, and where supplier relationships need to be built and rebuilt.” 

The shift of billions of people into cities as birth rates fall and populations age will entail a fundamental reconfiguration of where demand is generated, how goods need to be delivered, and where supplier relationships need to be built and rebuilt. 

New megacities also represent growing procurement and supply markets, new manufacturing hubs, and new nodes in global logistics networks. In the Middle East, where new cities are being built, we are already seeing procurement and supply chain professionals playing prominent roles. Procurement professionals who build sourcing strategies that anticipate emerging urban centres will be far better placed to survive and thrive than those who wait for the transition to happen.