How to get ahead of the future

The savvy supply chain professional has a chance to shine when the going gets tough, and this El Niño looks like it might provide tough going.

This is how to stay ahead of the game, according to CIPS global futurist Dr Graham Norris.

  1. Revisit supply chain maps and add in a layer on weather risks

    In 2011, a lot of companies discovered the hard way their supply chains extended to Thailand and Japan when those places were hit hard by natural disasters. "I didn't know they were in our supply chains" isn't a useful response. Conveniently, the same mechanisms used to monitor slavery and environmental impact can be adapted to identify risks related to El Niño.

  2. Keep abreast of developments, especially the chokepoints

    There is a lot of information available, so the hard part is not overloading yourself so you can focus on what matters. If you've done your homework mapping your supply chain, you'll already have a good grip on the risks you're facing. The table below offers examples of the types of information you can monitor to give you the earliest signals possible of trouble.

  3. Strengthen your supplier relationships

    The Persian Gulf conflict demonstrated to many companies the value of strong supplier relationships. When disaster strikes, a contract won't do you any good if your supplier is struggling more than you are. Start having the conversations now that can give you the best visibility into the problems they might be facing and how you can work through them.

  4. Capitalise on your strategic vantage point

    Through supply chains, you can literally see the future shifts that will keep your organisation ahead of the game. For example, your supply chain might not be exposed to agricultural commodities, but if you detect surging commodity prices that could impact the wallets of your price-sensitive customers, that's a signal worth flagging to the organisation as a whole. Now's the time to speak up.

 

 

How to get ahead of the future

Category Signal Resource
El Niño forecasts Pacific water temperatures. Unseasonably high sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are the indicators of a building El Niño event. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicators
Panama Canal Gatun Lake water level. Below about 84 feet the Authority starts cutting maximum draft (how deep a ship can sit, so how much it can carry). In August 2023, it fell to 79.6 feet and transits were cut from 36 a day to 24. It's currently just over 84 feet at the time of writing in October 2026. Official Gatun water level indicators via the Panama Canal Authority
Inland waterways River gauge readings. For example, Kaub on the Rhine is the reference gauge for all European barge freight. Below 77cm barges start running light and surcharges kick in. Below 40cm most stop. As of 8 September it read 28cm. Live Kaub gauge
Hydropower and energy rationing Reservoir stored levels, which local authorities use to guide decisions on water use. In Galicia, Spain, for example, several reservoirs feed the San Esteban Hydroelectric Plant. Status of reservoirs in Galicia
Soft commodities Production forecasts. The USDA's monthly production report flags El Niño-related crop impacts by country. Foreign Agricultural Service
Southeast Asian manufacturing Typhoons. Japan Meteorological Agency issues tracks storms every 3 hours. Japan Meteorological Agency map
Industrial water Municipal or provincial water restriction announcements in supplier cities Monitor local press
 

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