Trump's tariff turmoil fuels record supply chain anxiety

The latest quarterly Pulse Survey, conducted on the eve of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs in late March, saw a marked uptick in concern around the impact of geopolitical tension. In fact, 63% of respondents said “geopolitical uncertainty” is the primary risk they face over the next 12 months – the highest levels recorded in the history of the CIPS Pulse, which is supported by GEP. 

The findings reflect the views of global procurement leaders with oversight of supply categories and cost pressures, revealing a steep rise in anxiety about shortages and inflation, as geopolitical trade tensions rise across the globe.

CIPS CEO Ben Farrell said: "This quarter’s pulse reveals a critical tipping point. The combination of rising protectionism, new tariffs, and ongoing geopolitical shocks are reshaping global supply strategies in real time. Our members aren’t just predicting disruption, they’re living through it and rapidly adjusting their operations.”

“These results are a precursor to the actions we have seen businesses take since the Tariffs from the US were announced,” he continued. “Throughout Q1 companies were readying themselves for all scenarios, enabling them to pivot quickly by diversifying their supply chains, holding more stock and extending contracts, to minimise the disruption.”

The 145 respondents to the CIPS Pulse Survey rank their concerns on a 1–7 scale each quarter, allowing CIPS to track shifts in sentiment and anticipate challenges facing global commerce. 

US protectionism now a top threat

In terms of forward-looking supply chain risks, general geopolitical anxiety remains front of mind. This CIPS Pulse survey also saw a jump in concern about supply chain shortages over the coming three-month (4.36 up from 4.1 in Q4 2024), as well as over the full course of 2025 (4.9 up from 4.5 in Q4 2024 – the highest ever recorded). 

We added new granularity to our survey to provide a deeper picture of global pain points – fuelled by tariff tensions and ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. US protectionism (a new option for this Pulse Survey) has immediately entered the top five most reported factors, with over a third of respondents citing it as a key disruptor alongside US-China trade policy shifts.

Cybercrime, a top-three issue in both Q3 and Q4 2024, has now dropped out of the running, indicating a shift in focus. However, labour issues, while fluctuating, appear to be climbing again, this is likely due to wage inflation and skills shortages in critical industries.

“With all this disruption caused by geopolitical uncertainty, companies could take their eye of the ball in other key areas of business,” warns Farrell. “It is notable cybercrime, previously a top concern, has dropped in perceived urgency this quarter, as tariffs and US protectionist policies come into force, extremely important issues like cybercrime have been put on the backburner.” 

Procurement leaders take action

In response to growing instability, organisations are doubling down on core resilience strategies. The results highlight that proactive steps to manage tariff impacts were well underway throughout Q1, before the latest round of announcements from the United States. 

More than half of the respondents were reviewing relationships across their supply chains or exploring nearshoring/friendshoring options – demonstrating the depth of strategic realignment taking place globally. And only 6% expect no price increases – down from 18% last quarter.

The top strategies being considered to manage these risks are diversifying suppliers (scoring 5.62 out of 6 – an all-time high), extending contracts (4.98) and holding more stock (4.64).