89% cite conflict risk as supply chain fears hit record high and costs surge
Procurement and supply chain leaders warn of surging shipping, energy and input costs as fragile global supply webs come under sustained geopolitical strain
Global supply chains are entering a period of sustained and systemic disruption, with procurement and supply chain professionals reporting the highest levels of short and long-term anxiety on record, as geopolitical conflict and escalating trade instability drive sharp increases in costs across logistics, energy and critical inputs.
The latest CIPS Pulse Survey (Q1 2026) reveals that both short and long-term supply chain anxiety have surged to record highs, significantly exceeding previous peaks seen during earlier periods of disruption. The survey was conducted between 23 March and 9 April 2026 among CIPS members worldwide, capturing real-time insights from senior procurement and supply chain professionals operating at the forefront of global supply chains.
Short-term concern about potential supply chain shortages and disruptions has risen sharply to 5.69 (from 4.59 in Q4 2025), surpassing the previous high recorded in mid-2025, when uncertainty around US tariff policy intensified. Medium-term concern has also climbed to a record 5.64, up from previous highest of 5.03 in Q2 2025.
What sets this quarter apart is not just the scale of the increase, but the convergence of short and medium-term concern. Historically, medium-term anxiety has outpaced short-term sentiment, reflecting structural risks. In Q1 2026, however, near parity between the two signals a fundamental shift: disruption is now seen as both immediate and enduring.
This marks a transition from episodic shocks to a deeply entrenched environment of instability, where multiple risk factors are compounding simultaneously and eroding confidence across planning horizons.
Geopolitical disruption overtakes trade tensions as primary risk
Procurement and supply chain professionals overwhelmingly identify geopolitical instability as the dominant driver of disruption:
- 89% cite conflict in the Middle East
- 67% point to the broader geopolitical environment
- 28% highlight the war in Ukraine
Notably, this is the first time in over a year that US protectionism and US–China trade tensions have fallen out of the top three risks, overtaken by more immediate and operationally disruptive geopolitical threats.
Cost surges across shipping, energy and inputs signal inflationary pressure
Respondents anticipate significant price increases of over 10% across key categories in the coming quarter:
- Petroleum, metal ores and mining products: 63% expect 10%+ increases
- Shipping and logistics: 58%
- Chemicals and chemical products: 50%
Additional inflationary pressures are expected across:
- Rubber and plastics (48%)
- Computers and electronics (38%)
- Fabricated metals (36%)
- Transport equipment (34%)
These anticipated cost increases reflect tightening global supply conditions and should be expected to feed directly into higher consumer prices throughout 2026.
Rising costs across supply chains will impact everything from food and electrical goods to everyday household staples, intensifying cost-of-living pressures as businesses pass on higher input and logistics costs.
In response, organisations are rapidly shifting sourcing strategies to protect continuity:
- Diversifying suppliers (5.50)
- Extending contracts (5.15)
- Increasing inventory buffers (5.06)
The scores (out of 6) reflect procurement leaders’ prioritisation of resilience strategies, with high rankings for supplier diversification (5.50), contract extension (5.15) and increased inventory (5.06) indicating a decisive shift away from cost efficiency towards securing supply continuity in an increasingly volatile global trade environment.
Ben Farrell MBE, Global CEO of CIPS, said: “Procurement and supply chain professionals are navigating an environment of relentless disruption, and what this data shows is that we are no longer dealing with isolated shocks, but a fundamental reshaping of global trade.
“We have built highly efficient but deeply fragile global supply webs, where critical materials and components are concentrated in a handful of geographic choke points. Those vulnerabilities are now being exposed and, increasingly, exploited.
“Procurement and supply chain professionals are the people leading the response. We are seeing a decisive shift towards diversification, deeper visibility across supply networks, and a rebalancing away from pure cost efficiency towards resilience.
“Ultimately, organisations that understand their supply webs, not just their immediate suppliers, and invest in flexibility and security will be best placed to withstand the challenges ahead.”
Dr John Glen, global economist at CIPS, added: “The data points to a fundamental shift in the global economic environment.
“When shipping, energy and input costs rise simultaneously, businesses are forced to price in uncertainty. This will impact food, electrical goods and everyday household staples. This indirect impact on the cost of living added to the direct impact on motoring and heating costs will reduce household discretionary expenditure. As a result, the spectre of 1970’s ‘stagflation’, recession and inflation, now becomes a reality.”
“Businesses faced with low growth expectations are likely to reduce their investment expenditure and start to build cash reserves as a buttress against recession. The global economy then faces a perfect storm of reduced household and business spending at a time of increased inflation. The economic imperative of resolving the conflict in the Middle-East is obvious and urgent. Reflating the global economy is likely to require concerted action on the part of all major economies and their governments.”
The CIPS Pulse is a quarterly panel run in conjunction with the Global State of Procurement & Supply , which provides regular insight into the pinch points and pressures being experienced by global procurement and supply leaders.