Procurement professionals sound the alarm for sustained consumer price increases in 2026

Procurement professionals sound the alarm for sustained consumer price increases in 2026

CIPS Pulse Survey signals rising costs across shipping, energy and inputs—foreshadowing renewed pressure on consumer prices

Global supply chains are entering 2026 facing heightened instability, as procurement professionals warn that cost volatility across logistics, energy and critical inputs is becoming a permanent feature of international trade rather than a temporary disruption.

The latest CIPS (Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply) Pulse Survey, conducted globally in Q4 2025 before the latest escalation in geopolitical tensions, now appears increasingly prescient. Drawing on the insights of procurement and supply chain professionals, the CIPS Pulse offers an early indicator of stress within the global trading system. The latest CIPS Pulse findings on upward price pressures in shipping and logistics mirror the Indicative Freightos Baltic Index (FBX)*.

Procurement at the frontline of global trade volatility

Procurement teams operate at the intersection of geopolitics, trade policy and physical supply chains, making them among the first to experience cost and availability shocks. The survey shows short-term concern about supply disruption reached its highest level in two years, signalling rising anxiety over immediate supply security and price stability.

Short-Term Anxiety Climbs as Peak Trading Exposes Fragile Supply Chains

• Short-term concern (next 3 months): 4.59 out of 7
  (Up from 4.36 in Q3 and the highest reading recorded in the past two years)
• 12-month concern: 4.80 out of 7
  (Slightly lower than Q3, but still well above all 2024 levels)

As 2026 begins, those concerns are being realised, with sharp movements in freight and logistics costs reinforcing the survey’s warning that volatility—not stability—is now the baseline assumption for global procurement planning.

Shipping and logistics: early 2026 price swings validate survey warnings

The Pulse Survey identified shipping and logistics as the category most likely to see significant price increases, with 22% of respondents reporting cost rises of over 10% by the end of 2025.

Price movements between December and January between Asia – Europe and Asia - US illustrate the scale of volatility procurement teams are now expected to absorb across major shipping routes:

Indicative Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) lane pricing volatility

Selected global trade lanes – late 2025 to January 2026

*Late November / early December figures shown to indicate direction of movement into year-end.

Figures indicative of market movements observed between late December and mid-January via The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) is the leading independent, daily benchmark for global container spot prices, tracking 40-foot container (FEU) rates across 12 major ocean trade lanes

Key point for 2026: even where headline indices later soften, the speed and amplitude of price swings force procurement teams to build higher buffers into contracts costs that ultimately feed through to manufacturers, retailers and consumers.

From procurement volatility to consumer price pressure

Ben Farrell, CEO of CIPS, said: “Procurement professionals are often the first to see cracks forming in the global trading system. What this survey showed at the end of 2025 and what January 2026 has already confirmed is that volatility is no longer an exception. When logistics costs can swing by 20–30% in weeks, those pressures inevitably ripple through to businesses and consumers alike.”

When freight and logistics costs fluctuate sharply over short periods, organisations face difficult choices: absorb costs, delay supply, or pass increases down the value chain. In an environment where volatility is persistent rather than episodic, price risk increasingly becomes price reality.

The survey shows that logistics volatility is not occurring in isolation. Respondents also reported or anticipated cost increases across multiple categories critical to global production and distribution.

Multiple cost pressures converging

Alongside shipping and logistics, procurement professionals identified further areas of price inflation above 10%:

Biggest projected price increases (10%+) in Q4 2025 (= % percentage of respondent) :

• Shipping & logistics – 22%
• Computers & peripheral equipment – 18%
• Transport equipment – 15%
• Electrical machinery & apparatus – 14%

The convergence of these pressures increases the likelihood that cost volatility at the procurement level will translate into renewed inflationary pressure for end consumers in 2026.

Trade policy uncertainty amplifies cost risk

The survey highlighted tariffs and protectionist trade policies as major sources of volatility, with respondents reporting active monitoring and direct impact from shifting trade rules.

As global leaders debate the future of trade governance and the rules-based trading order, procurement teams are already pricing in uncertainty through higher risk premiums, diversified sourcing and longer-term contracts designed to withstand sudden policy shifts.

• 42% of respondents cited US protectionism as a major source of volatility
• 39% identified ongoing US–China trade tensions as a key risk to supply chains

Resilience is no longer optional

In response to sustained volatility, organisations are accelerating resilience strategies, including supplier diversification, extended contracts and selective inventory increases.

These measures, while improving security of supply, also raise the underlying cost base of global trade.

Dr John Glen, Chief Economist at CIPS, added:
“Volatility itself is inflationary. Even when prices fall back, the uncertainty forces organisations to plan for worst-case scenarios. In 2026, global procurement is being reshaped by the need to operate in an environment where disruption, cost swings and policy uncertainty are the norm rather than the shock.”